Environmental health determinants in 2050

Many interacting environmental and social determinants influence population health, and it is plausible (despite economic forecasts to the contrary) that many of these determinants will deteriorate. Australia cannot (and should not) fully insulate itself from its global context. Of particular concern are:

• Energy
• Food
• Sea level rise and future migration
• Synergisms among multiple stressors

The purpose of this research is to better understand these dimensions of risk, and to contribute to ways which will lessen their impact on Australian population health.

Researchers: A/Prof Colin Butler

Climate change, public health and conflict

There is growing recognition that climate change may act as a “risk multiplier” including as a driver for conflict. Plausible routes to conflict include via increased costs of food, increased scarcity of water and changes in their distribution. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are likely to drive increased migration, which may enhance regional tensions and conflict. Climate change has already been claimed to be a factor in the Darfur conflict in the Sudan. Any increase in conflict (and even the perception of enhanced risk) has important public health. implications.

Method: synthesis of existing and emerging literature.
Researchers: Devin Bowles, A/Prof Colin Butler