How do climate experts feel about the future? We asked them
A decade ago, conversations about climate change tended to include the word ‘hope’.
The world is a very different place now — we are in a climate emergency, according to the United Nations. Cities are experiencing unprecedented temperatures and many of our native species are facing extinction.
For climate researchers at The Australian National University (ANU), being on the frontlines of one of humanity’s greatest existential threats – while seeing little to no progress – can take its toll. So, how do they stay hopeful?
The spark that grew
Rachel Taylor is a PhD student at ANU. Her research looks at how to better predict the severity of Australia’s bushfire season by using weather and climate variables.
These days, she describes herself as a climate activist, although that hasn’t always been the case.
“I was actually a climate sceptic in high school. I didn’t think climate change was real at all. I thought it was a big scam,” Taylor says.
It wasn’t until a friend encouraged her to read Al Gore’s An inconvenient truth that her perspective changed.
“I was in the library and saw that book on the shelf, and flicked it open to a random page. It happened to be the climate change hockey stick graph [depicting historical temperature records]. From that moment onwards, I went from a climate denier to a climate activist.”
Taylor’s research has given her insights into some of the most pressing and visible effects of a radically changing environment. Still, nothing could have prepared her — or the rest of Australia — for the devastation of the 2020 Black Summer Bushfires.
Rachel Taylor's research helps to predict the severity of Australian bushfire seasons. Photo: Jamie Kidston/ANU
“I couldn’t fathom that we could have that much fire at once. Severe weather has definitely played a part in that,” Taylor says.
“I can see that the heatwaves are intensifying; they’re getting longer and more frequent. I can see that the climate drivers are just behaving in ways that we haven’t seen before. For example, the triple La Niña and now we’re going into another one, that’s not how it works.”
Professor Hilary Bambrick is the Director of the ANU National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, and has worked in the climate health space for over 25 years.
Like Taylor, Bambrick finds it hard to comprehend the climate upheavals playing out all over the world.
“I’ve been working in this space since 1998. In that time there have been periods of great hope and periods of deep despair. For at least 10 years in Australia, we had no climate policy at all while continuing to subsidise fossil fuels. That was a pretty dark time,” says Bambrick.
“It’s taken Australia a while to realise that it’s also on the frontier of climate change. We’re warming much more rapidly than the planet as a whole. We’re highly vulnerable in terms of extreme heat, fires, and drought. And we also have an ageing population, and older people are much more vulnerable to extreme heat.”
These maps show the anomaly of mean temperature for each calendar year since 1910, compared to the average over the standard reference period of 1961–1990. The colours range from dark blue (more than 3 °C below average), through blues and greens (below average), yellow and orange (above average), and on to brown (more than 3 °C above average). Image: Bureau of Meteorology. You can explore how your local area could be impacted by climate change via the MyClimate 2050 app.
Holding onto hope
Climate scientists aren’t alone in their fear for the future. A recent study by youth mental health not-for-profit Orygen found that two-thirds of Australians aged between 16 and 25 experience eco-anxiety.
“I try to focus on the optimistic side of things and what individuals can do because that makes people feel empowered. But in my own mind and in my own world. It’s hard to be optimistic,” Taylor says.
“I feel very anxious about the future. I expect to see the unexpected. That is the effect of climate change. Not all of our models can predict just how huge the impacts are going to be of whatever comes next.”
Bambrick also finds it harder to navigate through the range of emotions that come from working in this space. Particularly as the window that provides a peek into a liveable and sustainable future is closing so quickly.
Professor Hilary Bambrick has worked in the climate health space for over 25 years. Photo: Tracey Nearmy/ANU
“There are tipping points where you can’t actually reel climate change back in. From a certain point, permafrost starts melting, which releases methane and causes more warming. You create this kind of positive feedback loop,” she says.
“It’s unlikely we will keep to below 1.5 degrees, we’re already pretty close. I think if we’re lucky, we’ll manage to keep below two degrees. I believe on current emissions, we’re going to be well over three.”
“Some people might say that you can’t have hope because it’s just passive,” Bambrick says.
“But I think you can have a really active hope. That isn’t about sitting around waiting for something else to happen. It’s about saying, ‘I hope we can get there, and this is what I’m going to do to help create change’.”
From little things, big things grow
Around the world, people born in this millennium have shown they want their voices heard in the fight for climate action.
The momentum created by Greta Thunberg and others is needed now more than ever.
“I would say to young people: stay hopeful, stay engaged and know that your individual actions make a difference,” Taylor says.
With the most to lose and gain if pathways to net-zero fall short, young people simply don’t have another 10 years to wait.
It's been ten years since ANU researcher Joe Duggan created the project ‘Is This How You Feel?’, in which he approached the world’s leading climate scientists and asked them to respond to the question “How does climate change make you feel?”. Many scientists, including Emeritus Professor Tony McMichael, replied with their reflections. Image: Joe Duggan/isthishowyoufeel.com
“It’s obviously not fair that older people have created this mess and it’s younger people who are going to be living with the consequences for decades to come,” reflects Bambrick.
“But young people have already shown that they’re on it and that their voices need to be heard and there are actions that need to be taken.
“I’m sorry that so much has fallen to them. This should have been dealt with decades ago.”
This article was originally published by ANU Reporter.